Characteristics of a Kentucky Derby Winner

Horseracing Betting Lines

01/23/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the longest time, thoroughbreds raced four, five, even six times in their three-year-old season prior to the Kentucky Derby. The norm these days is just two or three with the races spaced out a month at a time.

In fact, the last five Derby winners hit the track just twice in their three- year-old campaign before the first Saturday in May. In 2007, Street Sense opened up his season with a nose victory over Any Given Saturday in the Mar. 17 Tampa Bay Derby and then finished second in the Blue Grass four weeks later. The next year, Big Brown picked up back-to-back victories at Gulfstream Park in March before taking home the roses.

Mine That Bird parlayed a pair of losses at Sunland Park in late February and March to win the Derby in 2009. Two years ago, Super Saver won on the slop at Churchill Downs after losing the Tampa Bay Derby and the Arkansas Derby in March and April, respectively. Last year, the lightly raced Animal Kingdom prevailed off two preps - an entry-level allowance loss on Mar. 3 followed by a win in the Spiral on Mar. 26.

As one can see, it doesn't really matter if the horses win or not prior to the Kentucky Derby. The key is to have enough graded earnings before the beginning of May to guarantee a spot in the Run for the Roses.

This year, a few of the key contenders will have only two three-year-old prep races, so for those folks who like to wager on trends, keep the names Union Rags, Sabercat, and maybe Dullahan in mind.

Another key attribute for a Kentucky Derby winner is a victory or a close second in a 1 1/8-mile race. Animal Kingdom (2011), Big Brown (2008), Barbaro (2006), Smarty Jones (2004), War Emblem (2002), Monarchos (2001), and Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) all won going nine-furlongs.

Super Saver (second by a neck in 2010), Street Sense (second by a nose in 2007), and Funny Cide (second by one half-length in 2003) all just missed winning at 1 1/8-miles prior to the Derby. The only two years since 2000 this trend has not held true were 2005 and 2009 when Giacomo and Mine That Bird, respectively, crossed the wire first at 50-1.

Giacomo at least had a pair of nine-furlong attempts finishing third, beaten 1 1/4-lengths as the 8-5 favorite in the Sham, and then running fourth, beaten by two in the Santa Anita Derby. Mine That Bird was 13-1 when he ran fourth, beaten 3 1/4-lengths in the Sunland Derby. It is imperative to finish first, second, third, or fourth, in the final prep race as the last horse to win the Derby finishing fifth or beyond was Iron Liege some 55 years ago.

The most noticeable trend is the two-year-old jinx as Apollo in 1882 was the last horse to win the Kentucky Derby without a start at two. That means Todd Pletcher's Spring Hill Farm, who burst on the scene with a dazzling 6 1/4- length score in a seven-furlong maiden race at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 14, will have a tough time catching up to his contemporaries in the coming months.

THE IMPORTANCE OF A SOLID PEDIGREE

With most of the Kentucky Derby entrants coming to Churchill Downs with fewer and fewer starts, a horses' pedigree is a vital way of narrowing down the field to a more manageable number.

That is one reason why two-year-old champion Hansen is way down on my "Dirty Dozen" list. Despite all the early accomplishments, his breeding does not suggest success as the distances increase.

Hansen's sire Tapit has produced a ton of solid runners, including Trappe Shot, Tapizar, and Stardom Bound, but not many have won past nine-furlongs. His dam side, going back a few generations, lacks any sort of stamina to make up for his distance-challenged sire line.

Another top runner, Discreet Dancer, has all the talent to be one of this year's top milers but asking him to go another quarter-mile might be his undoing.

The jury is out on his sire Discreet Cat as his first crop just turned three this year. Still, his dam, Pretty Discreet, won the Alabama Stakes at Saratoga and his sire, Forestry, sent out Shackleford who won last year's Preakness.

Discreet Dancer comes from a top-notch female line. His second dam, Bering Cruise, is a half-sister to Love Me True, whose son Duke of Marmalade won multiple long-distance Group 1 races overseas. His third dam, Lassie's Lady, is a half-sister to Weekend Surprise, who produced A.P. Indy and Summer Squall.

Nevertheless, Discreet Dancer's dam, West Side Dancer, has produced just one other foal, the four-year-old sprinter, Travelin Man. The odds are strong that Discreet Dancer has a better chance of stretching out his speed than his older half-brother, but winning graded races over a-mile-and-an-eighth is still a question mark.

To that end, the top pedigrees on the 2012 Kentucky Derby trail belong to Sky Kingdom, Alpha, Russian Greek, Algorithms, and Casual Trick.

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El Duque expected to throw Tuesday

PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. -- New York Mets pitcher Orlando Hernandez, sidelined at spring training because of arthritis in his neck, is expected to resume throwing on Tuesday.

Hernandez received a cortisone shot Thursday after leaving camp and returning to New York to have his neck examined. The 41-year-old right-hander is penciled in as the team's No. 2 starter behind Tom Glavine.

El Duque's health is a major issue for the Mets, who won the NL East in 2007 and came within one victory of the World Series. Their aging and unsettled rotation is a big question mark this year.

MySportsbook.com has the Mets as -110 favorites to repeat as NL East champions odds. 

Hernandez went 11-11 with a 4.66 ERA last season, including 9-7 with a 4.09 ERA in 20 starts after the Mets acquired him from Arizona in late May. But he missed the playoffs because of a torn calf muscle.

New York already is without Pedro Martinez, out until at least midseason following rotator cuff surgery. Among those competing for starting jobs are prospects Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber and Jason Vargas, plus veterans Chan Ho Park, Jorge Sosa and Aaron Sele.

Notes: Mets manager Willie Randolph is excited about two new utility players he could have on his bench: Damion Easley and David Newhan. ''Their value is really all over the place,'' Randolph said. Easley can play anywhere in the infield and could be used as an emergency outfielder, though Randolph said he would prefer to keep the veteran in the infield. Newhan, meanwhile, can play second base, third or any outfield position for the Mets. ''I love versatility,'' Randolph said. ''I love guys that can give me options when I need them to step in.''

Additional baseball lines and World Series odds can be found at: www.MySportsbook.com

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.

Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.