Rockies blank Diamondbacks

Baseball Betting Lines

07/03/2009 - Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jorge De La Rosa blanked the Diamondbacks through eight innings, and Joel Peralta and Huston Street finished off Colorado's 5-0 shutout of its NL West rival.

De La Rosa (5-7) won his third straight start by giving up just four hits and four walks while striking out six. Peralta and Street combined to hurl a perfect ninth for the Rockies, who were coming off a 5-4 road swing.

Chris Iannetta and Troy Tulowitzki each had two hits and an RBI, and Ian Stewart added a solo homer for the victors.

Max Scherzer (5-6) suffered the loss, allowing five runs -- three earned -- on six hits and a walk, adding five strikeouts in his six-inning start for Arizona, which had almost as many errors (three) as hits (four).

The D-Backs have now lost eight of their last nine.

Stewart's two-out homer made it 1-0 in the second inning, and the Rockies added a pair of runs in both the fifth and sixth frames to pull away.

Iannetta singled to open the fifth and came around to score on a two-out double by Dexter Fowler, who hustled home on Gerardo Parra's throwing error.

Parra had a chance to redeem himself with a bases-loaded opportunity in the sixth but grounded into a fielder's choice to end the threat.

Tulowitzki doubled in Todd Helton in the bottom half and made it 5-0 by scoring on Iannetta's sacrifice fly later in the frame.

Game Notes

The game was delayed 22 minutes for rain...Colorado, which kicked off a 10- game homestand has won six straight at Coors Field.,,The Rockies lead the season series 4-3. The D-Backs went 15-3 against the Rockies last season, including a 7-2 mark in Denver.

Online-picks Baseball Betting News

<< Moss and Vazquez lead Pirates over Marlins
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brandon Moss and Ramon Vazquez hit early home runs, and the Pittsburgh Pirates shut down Hanley Ramirez, on the way to a 7-4 win over the Florida Marlins in the opener of a three-game series. Charlie Morton

<< Mariners squeak past Red Sox in 11
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rob Johnson went 3-for-5 with three doubles, including a two-run double in the top of the 11th, to lift the Seattle Mariners past the AL East-leading Boston Red Sox, 7-6, in the opener of a three-g

<< Hoffpauir's first career hit, Pujols' slam lifts Cards over Reds
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jarrett Hoffpauir came through in a big way in his major league debut, hitting the go-ahead two-run single in the ninth inning, lifting St. Louis to a 7-4 win over Cincinnati, in the opener of a three-g

<< White Sox stay hot, upend Greinke's Royals
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - John Danks was dominant in 7 1/3 shutout innings, as the red-hot Chicago White Sox extended their season-best winning streak to seven games with a 5-0 blanking of the Kansas City Royals. Danks (7-6) h

<< Choo and Tribe pound A's
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Shin-Soo Choo went 4-for-5 with two homers, a career-high seven runs batted in and scored four times, as the Cleveland Indians crushed the Oakland Athletics, 15-3, in the opener of a three-game series

Rangers get just enough offense to top Rays >>
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hank Blalock belted a two-run homer and Tommy Hunter pitched 5 1/3 strong innings to collect his first win in the majors on his 23rd birthday, as the Texas Rangers downed the Tampa Bay Rays, 3-1, in

Bowyer wins crash-filled Nationwide race at Daytona >>
Daytona Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Clint Bowyer held off Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards in a green-white-checkered finish to win Friday's Subway Jalapeno 250 and record his first victory at Daytona International Speedway. Bowyer, the 2008

Late miscue forces 'Quakes to share points with RSL >>
Sandy, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Jose Earthquakes and Real Salt Lake battled to a 1-1 draw in Major League Soccer action at Rio Tinto Stadium on Friday night. Arturo Alvarez scored the game's first goal for San Jose before a Chr

Report: NHL to investigate Blackhawks' qualifying offers >>
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Blackhawks are reportedly under investigation by the NHL for failing to tender qualifying offers to several restricted free agents by the league's set deadline. According to TSN Canada, th

Kings acquire F Smyth in multi-player deal >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Kings boosted their offense on Friday, acquiring All-Star forward Ryan Smyth from the Colorado Avalanche in a three-player deal. Smyth, 33, tied for the Avalanche lead in points last seas

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.